Viking branch frozen — Outcome A stands, no Hofstaðir download. Back to Bigfoot.
BLAST API works — no install, no download needed. Dispatching Qwen 5 and Qwen 7 on the design while I verify result retrieval.
Both converge on a test that must come first, before any species call: if sample 31 is 100% identical to human chr11 with zero mismatches, it's reference fill, not a human sample. BLAST gives identity and mismatch counts directly, so I can test both at once.
Viking branch frozen at Outcome A. Back on Bigfoot, and the Ketchum classification is running against NCBI — no download at all, via the BLAST URL API.
Both roles converged on something that reframes the whole test
The consensus was built against human chromosome 11, so a window with no read support inherits the human reference base. That means the three assignments are not symmetric:
- A bear or dog match is informative — non-human reads had to actively override the human reference there.
- A human match may be pure method artifact. As Qwen 7 put it, reproducing "31 = human" could be "a null result dressed as a positive one."
So "sample 31 is human" might just mean sample 31 had almost no usable reads. That's a different claim from Hart's, and it's testable.
The diagnostic: reference fill is 100.00% identical to the reference with zero mismatches. A real human individual differs from the reference at roughly 1 site per 1–2 kb, so 39 windows of 1 kb should carry tens of mismatches. BLAST reports identity and mismatch counts per window directly, so I get the species call and the fill test from one run — no need to download chr11.
Design, fixed before any result
- 1 kb windows, 39 per sample, evenly spaced. Qwen 5 wanted 5 kb × \~1,070 windows, which is both impolite to NCBI and unnecessary; Qwen 7 argued ≥1 kb to avoid spurious wrong-genus hits at high identity, and I took that.
- Plain blastn, word size 11 — not megablast. Megablast's long exact seed is tuned for same-species identity and would simply miss carnivore-versus-primate divergence, which is the entire signal here.
- Low-complexity skipped by rule, not by hand: telomeric repeats over 20%, or any single base over half the window. Exactly 1 window per sample was skipped, all telomeric, and that count is reported rather than hidden.
All three jobs are submitted and polling.
What I'll be able to claim, and what I won't
Qwen 7's limits are right and I'm adopting them. With consensus only and no reads, a genuine mixture of human, bear and dog reads forced onto a human reference is indistinguishable from a single species with reference fill. So the honest ceiling is: samples 26 and 140 contain sequence more similar to bear and dog than to human in regions where the consensus diverges from the human reference, consistent with those species being present.
What I'll refuse to claim: species identity of the samples, absence of mixture or contamination, or that any sequence is novel. Chimeric junctions where mixed-species reads meet would look like "novel" sequence and are assembly artifacts.
I'll report the per-window table, how decisive each assignment is by bitscore margin to the next genus, and the reference-fill verdict on sample 31 as soon as the results land. Then on to Sykes 25072 and the human-positive sample table.
Rich results, and they need proper stratification — a window matching human at 84% identity is not human sequence, it's just the nearest database entry. Let me fix the organism parsing and analyze by identity.
Now it's quantitative. Let me check one more thing — how much of each window actually aligns — because that reframes sample 31.
Ketchum classification — results
Done with no download at all, via the BLAST URL API. 39 windows of 1 kb per sample, 1 telomeric window skipped per sample by the pre-set rule.
Hart's assignments: two reproduce decisively, one does not
| sample |
Hart |
our finding |
decisive evidence |
| 26 |
black bear |
bear — reproduced |
100.00% identity over 884 bp to Ursus maritimus; 100.00% over 289 bp to U. americanus; 99.21% and 99.60% to U. americanus / U. arctos |
| 140 |
dog |
canid — reproduced |
100.00% over 448 bp to Canis lupus, plus five more canid windows at 100.00%; 100.00% over 277 bp to Vulpes vulpes |
| 31 |
human |
not a clean reproduction |
top genus is Homo in 37/39 windows, but see below |
The finding that matters for the investigation
In samples 26 and 140, "Homo" is the top hit in roughly half the windows — at only 90% identity. Sample 26's human hits carry 99.5 mismatches per kb, sample 140's 87.0 per kb. That is \~9–13% divergence. These are not human sequence. Human is simply the nearest entry in the database for conserved mammalian regions where no bear or dog sequence sits closer.
Neither sample has a single window matching human at 100% identity.
That is the mechanism by which a bear or dog sample returns "human" in a human-reference pipeline — demonstrated directly, on the actual files. It's the most investigation-relevant thing here.
Sample 31 is neither human nor reference fill
- 22 of 39 windows match Homo at exactly 100.00%
- but the remaining aligned bases carry 65.9 mismatches per kb
- and critically, the best hit covers only 14.5% of each window (median 14.0%, max 23.2%), against 41% for sample 26 and 37% for sample 140
A genuine 527 kb stretch of human chromosome 11 should align to human over essentially its whole length. Aligning over one-seventh, in a bimodal mix of perfect matches and 6% divergence, is not what human DNA looks like.
I have to correct my own test. I'd said reference fill would show 100% identity and genuine human would show mismatches. That's wrong at these alignment lengths: at \~1 variant per kb, a 140 bp stretch of a real human genome is variant-free about 87% of the time, so perfect short matches are expected for real human DNA and prove nothing. The discriminator is the pooled variant rate across all aligned bases, not per-window perfection.
So the honest verdict on 31 is that it is uninterpretable as a species call — consistent with Qwen 7's prediction, though for a different reason than either of us expected. Not reference fill, not clean human, and mostly unalignable.
What this cannot establish
Per the limits I committed to in advance: with consensus only and no reads, a genuine mixture of human, bear and dog reads forced onto a human reference is indistinguishable from a single species with reference fill. So the claim is bounded to: samples 26 and 140 contain sequence more similar to bear and canid respectively than to human, in regions where the consensus diverges from the human reference. Not species identity of the samples, not absence of mixture or contamination, and nothing about novelty.
One caveat on the canid result: 100% identity to both Canis lupus and Vulpes vulpes in different windows means some of those loci are conserved across canids, so "dog" specifically is less pinned down than "canid."
Next I'll put this through Qwen 7 for red-team review before it goes in the README, then move to Sykes 25072 and the human-positive sample table.